The evolution of my SPY calculator is dramatic. Each step along the way over the last 9 months comes with new markets, challenges, and problems to solve.
Over the last five months, the current version of my calculator produced strong results. Strong enough that I felt it was time to share it with the world. Well, I have to concede, this crazy October market broke my confidence in the current version of the SPY calculator.
So, I dug deep and created new formulas and algorithms to find the next evolution. I think I got it.
I began recording the data I’m using on September 10th. So, I was able to backtest to that point with 85% accuracy on the next day SPY open. This includes 100% correct so far in October. Well, until today to keep me humble.
Digging deeper, I’ve gained even more confidence in the next day outlook with this new calculator version. Even a little correlation (beta) comparing numbers and the strength of the next day.
Update: I’ve reviewed as much data available back to Mid June and the numbers are strong. I will say the old calculator pressure numbers are still valuable to identify flat days and markets.
I will deside how to present the new measurements by end of day. The prediction line will be the result of the new calculator. The reading is taken little later at 3:45. Again more adjustments.
I’m giving myself until the end of the month to figure it all out. We are back in beta, to predict the market better.