It’s been a long journey. Thursday December 17th, 2020 I created the final formula for SPY tomorrow.
I’ve made many breakthroughs along the way. Even a few similar declarations. However, as volatility lowered some of my calculations broke. When volatility is high most of my basic calculators work well, it’s like taking candy from a baby (well, you may not have met my kids).
It’s much harder to correctly calculate market direction when volatility is low. This means the low volatility times have forced me to figure out solutions while our SPY predictions were falling apart.
Currently, my new calculation is right about 90% of the time. This is not the calculation prediction I currently share on the front page of SPY tomorrow. Now, I have combined the best of my two next-generation calculations which were around 80% correct, and there we have it, the N2VV SPY calculation.
I’ll officially begin using the new calculation on Monday, December 21st (for Tuesday).
When is it wrong? Only on the days in which News changes the mood of the market. Recently, that is 4 times out of 34 days, four big news events such as the election, vaccine, and surprise employment reports turned the market. After I take a reading near the end of the day, if the mood changes due to a news event, there is nothing you can do about it. That’s why you diversify.
However, I believe the N2VV is the holy grail I’ve been searching for over my time at home during the Covid pandemic 2020. Currently, it is correct 100% of the time when predicting the next day SPY open positive or negative, unless, again, there is market changing news. Which happens about once every 5-10 days lately.
I’m still building support calculations.
One issue is what I refer to as the switch. At some point, positive turns negative and negative positive. I believe the switch point indicator is found in the options calculation Zomma. However, I don’t have that calculation at the ready. I’m using Vega and volatility to give me close warning signs. Plus, I don’t know if there is more than one switch point.
When the volatility was higher, some of my calculations seemed to correlate with how big a move was coming the next day. I want to see if I can make an observation or create an indicator to help me gauge the size of the move.
Some of my calculators have correctly predicted some of the biggest moves over the last few months.
I’m sticking with the plan to grow my account using my SPY pressure next day predictions until it makes sense to hire support to properly run this website and the membership section.
I’ve earned some nice rewards over the last 9-10 months, however, the low volatility times and my experiments have started to chip away at principle. So, I need to build my account back up.
Although it’s my desire to keep the free version for SPY on the front page, I eventually want to offer a variety of support information, insight, and statistics to the members (currently closed). This may include other ETF’s or specific stocks.
Currently, it’s just me running this website. The rest of my team is working on work for our digital media clients.
Hopefully, by spring, I’ll have this website in gear moving forward for members again. Until then, watch the front page or Twitter (@prosperous) for next day SPY pressure predictions and the occasional blog post.
Stay safe and good luck.