Of course, the last day of the four-week beta test using the new Wave predictions is wrong. However, it still hit 18 of 20 days correct or 90%. Two weeks backtest and two weeks live. Not, bad.
Being wrong is actually helpful. Sometimes the prediction is kind of like baseball. I need to follow the statistical percentages to win.
Over the last week, I’ve backtested where I could to see if the Wave measurements still hold up during different markets. Not all results were very good. So, I added another measure of the Wave results. Now, I have the original day-over-day reading and a reading during the last hour of trading.
When the results match the prediction is over 90% accurate, when they are mixed, the results currently correctly call for an up day about 85% of the time.
My goals for spytomorrow.com is over 80% accuracy. This means 4 out of 5 trades each week are correct.
There are many reason why the calcualor can be wrong. For example, the day after the election we were set for a down day, but the market noticed that the Senate may be gridlocked, and the market mood turned positive.
News is a big reason for wrong prediction results
Although Friday is officially wrong, it fits with the mixed result that the members of the group saw. Based on the averages, a mixed means an up day. However, I called it pressure down because the day to day Wave measure showed down. This is the one which has been correct all month. I wasn’t going against the month-long trend of solid predictions.
Lesson learned. Moving forward, when the two measures are mixed, I’ll show an up signal. For non-members on the front page of spytomorrow.com and our Twitter account, they will see a green arrow. For SPY members they will see a yellow arrow.
Although results are strong, I’m going to keep the site in beta until the end of November.