After two weeks of 100% accuracy testing the new SPY calculator, we started to see mixed results. One of the numbers was acting strangely. On a few days, I had to declare a mixed day. Three results pointed one direction and one pointed the other.
It turns out the rogue result was taking data from the wrong location. When I created the new permanent calculator something didn’t translate correctly. Human error, I’m sure.
I guess that is why we have beta periods.
I fixed the error and all the number predictions lined up in unison. Each of the columns acted like the previous weeks – no mixed results.
Out of the last three weeks of trading, the calculator was correct 14/15 days. The only day not correct was Nov 4th, when the market seemed poised for a solid down Wednesday.
However, the market mood changed after hours when the Senate race looked to be going to the Republican party. A gridlock congress with a Democrat President has historically lead to a positive market.
So, I’m OK with the wrong day. It’s not realistic to expect every day to go our way. Big news can and will change the market mood and direction.
I’m very excited. If the calculator holds up one more week with 4 or 5 days correct, I’ll consider taking the website out of beta and begin the process of getting the word out about spytomorrow.com (better than ever).
One amazing thing this calculator does offer is better insight into how much the market may change the next day. Other versions of the SPY calculators offered no such correlation.
Once out of beta, this will be highly valuable information I can share with our members.
One question I still have is how with the calculator work during a flat market. It was tough trading over the flat market summer. This still might be the case, however, if the calculator remains more accurate, it may make up for poor-performing days.
It’s possible we will have true mixed days when the volatility calms down. We will see, it’s still early.