I started posting publically last Friday. So far so good 4 for 4.
Of course, every time I post a pressure prediction I have a sinking feeling like it will be wrong tomorrow and from now on. So far my current version of the calculator has been correct 20 of 22 times since October 5th (90% correct) and 48 of 59 since August 3rd (81% correct). Not bad.
The difference now is I’m posting publically. Publishing and Tweeting the predictions for the world to review. Once, I have a long-term public record of a consistent 75% or above, I’ll feel much better.
Yes, there will be wrong days. News happens and market pressure changes. But, will tomorrow be wrong? I feel like we’re due. Plus, most wrong days are down-pressure predictions. Which is the prediction for November 4th.
My approach: I’ve been buying just outside the money options near expiration for an overnight trade and this is a working approach. When you’re 80% correct, or if you’re wrong only 20% or even 30% of the time, you’ll still have a nice return.
The key is to position size to meet your goals, yet, place the position size like you plan to lose it all, and still, your account remains in good shape to play again in the next round.
If this public beta launch holds together, I’ll begin preparing for the membership launch in early January 2022.
As I believe I’ve mentioned in the past. I would like to automate this system and even offer access as an online app so members can customize the results with their needs. Possibly an hourly or real-time update.