SPY-T Trading SPY-T Trading

Growth Lab: the Portfolio Simulator

A real-world trading simulator with the levers that actually decide your outcome — win rate, win/loss size, position sizing, commissions, slippage, and monthly deposits. Run one account, or flip on Monte Carlo to see the median path, the cone of likely outcomes, and your honest odds of losing money.

Quick start — pick a scenario, then tune any lever; editing switches you to Custom
The basics
Cash flow — deposits land at the start of each month
Trade shape — what the strategy delivers per trade
Sizing & defense
Real-world costs — the quiet edge-killers: every trade pays both
Mode

How this works. Each trade puts your chosen position size to work — a percent of the running balance (which compounds) or a fixed dollar amount. A trade wins with your stated probability; its size is drawn from the distribution you picked, centered on your average win or loss and capped at your max gain/loss. The average sets the typical trade; the cap only clips the rare extreme one — but if a cap sits close to your average, it clips enough big draws to pull the real average below the stated one, and a note under the console tells you when that happens. Every trade then pays commission and slippage, so the P&L you see is net. Monthly deposits land at the start of each month (your trades-per-month setting), and the monthly growth rate is time-weighted so deposits can’t fake performance. If drawdown defense is on, position size halves whenever the account sits 20% or more below its high-water mark.

Read Monte Carlo like a pro. The headline is the median run — half of the simulated accounts did worse, which is more honest than an average that a few lucky compounding streaks drag upward. The band on the chart holds the middle 80% of runs, and the “runs that lost money” card is exactly what it sounds like.

This is a hypothetical. Win rate, trade sizes, and costs are values you choose — they are not a claim about any signal’s performance, including ours. Taxes are not modeled, real fills vary, and live losing streaks run longer than intuition expects. Simulated results are illustrative, not investment advice.

This options trade simulation is based on SPY-T Trading Level One, focusing on directional overnight swing trades (calls and/or puts) to produce realistic outcomes. The simulation features a maximum gain of 100% and a maximum loss of 95%. It is designed to reflect real-world trading conditions, making it unlikely to randomly hit the higher percentage gains. While it is possible to achieve returns exceeding 100%, losses cannot exceed 100%—unless you’re selling options to the market. The SPY-T method is strictly based on buying and selling calls and puts only.

To SPY-T trade level 1: At 4 PM (or 3:55 PM for members), check the signal indicating up or down pressure, which often correlates with the market’s opening the next day. In your higher-risk portfolio, place a call or put on SPY (or a stock or ETF that mirrors SPY) with a 4-14 day expiration, depending on your trading style’s aggressiveness or conservatism. Maintain consistency by buying your position at the end of the trading day based on a signal (such as from spytomorrow.com), trading the same amount, and setting a standard exit time each day (e.g., 9:30, 10:00, 10:30, or 11:00 AM) to avoid human or emotional interference. This simulation follows a specific style of risky trading called SPY-T trading, which involves overnight swing trades using short-term, near-expiration options. Please note that this simulation is an estimate and the results cannot be guaranteed. Repeat the process the next day.

Portfolio Simulation Video

Video Update Coming Soon