SPY-T Trading SPY-T Trading

Not all nights pay the same

Thirty-three years of SPY overnights — buy the close, sell the next open — filtered by things you can know before you buy: did today close red or green, where is the VIX, which side of the 50-day are we on, is a weekend in the way. The average night is fine. Choosing your nights is the game.

Filter the nights — every condition is knowable at the close, before you buy
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Methodology. A “night” is buying SPY at the official close and selling at the next session’s official open — weekend and holiday holds count as one night. Conditions are measured at the entry close: prior-day direction compares that close to the previous one, the VIX is that day’s close, trend compares the close to its own 50-day average. Raw prices; dividends land overnight on ex-div dates and are not reinvested here, so overnight returns are slightly understated. Data since January 1993, refreshed daily.

Read it honestly. Every filter here was knowable before the trade — no hindsight — but averages are not signals, regimes change (use the history selector), and slicing thin enough will always find noise: the tool warns you when a bucket is too small to trust. Costs are not modeled; taking every matching night is still a lot of round trips. Turning “which nights tend to pay” into “tonight, yes or no” is the job of the live SpyTomorrow signal. Educational visualization, not investment advice.