Why do I think this SPY calculator will work in 2021?
I’ve spent most of 2020 working on variations of my SPY calculator. Even after my last post, I had a required tweak to the calculation method. But now I’m done. Really. Really. Honestly. Really.
I declared the N2VV the answer in my last post. It is, but not in the way I thought. It was on a streak of about 90% correct, but then it faded. It turns out to be about 80% correct long term, like the other Waves. The N2 Wave is currently the best-performing indicator.
However, if you add all the results of the main three waves, this final result has the best track record. I tried testing by adding and working with other variations of the waves, but it lead to nowhere.
Over the last week I’ve improved the efficiency of the calculator too. This will allow me work faster and even track multiple ETF’s or stocks if I decide to test them in the new year.
Currently, I only track the SPY (SPY tomorrow).
So, this is where I stand for 2021. I still have the switches to watch out for, so far so good at identifying them.
I’m starting my account at $1000 for January 4th. Of course, the calculator was wrong over the last long weekend. However, I’m still in with a minimal Put position. Let’s hope the New Year kicks off right or in my favor (down).
After starting the SPY tomorrow site, I often used multiple approaches to calculate the prediction results each month. As each method or calculator broke down, I made positive adjustments. These tweaks and recalculations and back-testing has lead me to the current result which works well even in low volatility. Most of my calculators work really well during higher volatility.
I believe moving forward, the monthly calculator predictions will be at least 75% correct most months, if not above 80%.
So, here we go, SPY Tomorrow is out of Beta. Happy 2021!